A number of behavioural biases revolve around illusions when things may not be as they appear. This can have a potentially harmful impact on decisions about your scheme, people, or business. Here we identify two of these illusions and highlight the actions you can take to prevent them.

Illusion of Control

Top of the list is the illusion of control, i.e. overestimating one’s ability to control certain events. This is common amongst those who take calculated risks, believing that their background, skills and experience can give them control over random or unforeseen events.

The perception of our own control is incredibly important when we make decisions - humans naturally have a strong motive to control their environment.

The illusion may arise because people lack insight into whether they are actually in control of events, and instead judge their degree of control through an unreliable process. For example, assuming they exert more control in familiar situations because they can recall the outcome of a previous instance, and wrongly believing the same outcome will occur again. The illusion of control is also strengthened by stressful and competitive situations - those that boards regularly face.

A theory regarding the illusion of control is that people will seek to assert control over their environment, particularly when conditions are chaotic or uncertain. This is because one way of coping with a lack of real control is to incorrectly assume that they have more control over a situation than they do.

Illusion of validity

Another common illusion is the illusion of validity - a cognitive bias where a person overestimates their ability to interpret and predict the outcome when analysing a set of data. This is often the case when the data starts to show a consistent pattern and it’s easy to assume it will continue to follow it.

This effect continues even when the person is aware of a number of factors that may curb the accuracy of their predictions, such as when the data or methods used to judge them may lead to spurious accuracy. The illusion of validity can create unwarranted confidence.

Illusion of validity in practice

When observed patterns are consistent and input variables are closely correlated, this may increase incorrect confidence about the result.

Avoiding the illusion

Judgments made by people who appear assertive and confident shouldn’t always be taken as reality unless you can independently verify their knowledge and findings. This can be difficult - confident professionals both look and act like experts even if they are under an illusion. However, innovative tools such as Periskope can help you challenge dominant personalities within a group and give every individual an equal voice within a discussion.

Find out more about Periskope and how it can help overcome behavioural biases and lead to fairer discussions, and ultimately better decisions.