Economic Scenario Service

The Economic Scenario Service ("ESS") is a suite of mathematical models that allows you to explore the consequences of today’s business decisions on tomorrow’s outcomes.

Our ESS has been extensively developed over the past 20 years and it is supported by a wider team of around 100 people. The core ESS team comprises experts with extensive actuarial, quantitative modelling, academic, software development, and consulting experience. 

The modelling is built using the latest technology and modelling methods. You can access the economic scenarios directly, for use in your own applications, or make use of these through our wide range of modelling tools and APIs.

How we can help

The ESS produces stochastic projections for a wide array of asset class returns and other economic factors, which can be used as part of any quantitative risk management exercise. Whether it is carrying out asset-liability modelling (ALM), strategic asset allocations (SAA), or any other exercise designed to quantify financial risk exposure, the ESS can serve as a powerful tool to enrich your analysis.

The ESS’ models are regularly updated to capture the latest market conditions and are maintained and documented by a dedicated specialist team.

The Economic Scenario Service is a flexible framework for generating economic scenarios over any time horizon, giving you the confidence to make the right decisions for your business.

Our capabilities

We take pride in our extensive modelling capabilities. The ESS supports most of our institutional investment clients as well as underpinning our GO (Guided Outcomes) based offerings and the risk models embedded in the APIs used by asset managers.

The ESS is a flexible framework for generating economic scenarios and asset returns. We can do this for single or multiple economies over any time horizon. A large set of asset classes is realistically projected using sophisticated stochastic modelling and calibration techniques. This includes:

  • Nominal and real interest rates 
  • Inflation
  • Equities and other growth assets
  • Property
  • Currencies
  • Credit 

Our team of experts can model bespoke funds, complex portfolio structures and strategies, including derivatives. We look at short-term market behaviour and blend it with longer-term outlooks based on capital market views to generate realistic outputs.

It is updated with the most recent market data to ensure it is reliable and accurate, allowing you to make effective business decisions. We also ensure the ESS is fully transparent to enable management, auditors and regulators to gain an understanding of the methods used.

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ESS Calibration Update

A sample of ESS calibration document can be found by clicking the link below. This document is intended to provide consultants and other interested parties with a high-level overview of the Economic Scenario Service (ESS), our proprietary economic scenario generator. If you would like to learn more please don’t hesitate to get in touch.

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API Catalogue

Apps and APIs

Our suite of outcomes-based modelling APIs can be integrated into your web and mobile applications to help you start engaging with your customers in meaningful ways.

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Guided Outcomes

How do you help members save more?

In a world in which more people are saving as a result of auto-enrolment (but not saving enough), it's not practical for trustees and employers to offer advice directly to members. But what if there was a solution that was smart enough to tell members how much to save, how to invest and how to take their benefits?

Get involved with GO

Get in touch

If you would like to find out more please don't hesitate to contact our ESS team.

Get in touch